After special steel market rebound will be the trend of The Times
Of special steel market in 2011 and basic PuGang market movements, during the first half, or beautiful, but in the second half was turned down, prices recovered, especially in September and October, the overall market to a harrowing, declines very quickly, with lower prices at the same time, there was demand alexopoulos, the already poor trading volume, there have been plummeting, until the day the situation did not appear a certain degree of improvement.
Throughout the hong kong-listed run weak environment, steel mills can also be difficult to provide effective support to the market, but in the whole market falling under the drag of forced cut constantly, xiang steel policy, for example, the most dramatic fall in the market in September is still in insist, fall for only 50 yuan, but in October and November, because couldn't see any signs of a rebound, steel mills policy can only helpless downward, declines in month of 230 yuan and 340 yuan respectively, adjustment in the year, to the beginning of December, cut in action finally ended, but at this point has been a decline in August of 620 yuan.
Due to steel prices falling too fast, steel mills ex-factory prices are lower, corporate profits fell across, according to data, 1 -
In November, cisa statistics of member enterprise product sales profit fell to 2.
55%, which in October and November, iron and steel enterprises that month break even after only achieved a profit of 1. 4 billion yuan and 12, respectively.
Sales revenue 200 million yuan, the average profits of 0 respectively.
48% and 0.
If deduct investment income, is a net loss of steel mills November 9.
200 million yuan, enterprise percentage of loss-incurring enterprises has been more than a third.
Special steel enterprise production also suffers from losing money, special steel products production is the largest carbon steel guitar more almost and round steel prices, steel mills production enthusiasm declined obviously, EGang, for example, in the September carbon round output is close to 1.
50000 tons, but in October, November production has been cut by almost forty percent, only ten thousand tons, monthly production of the slowdown in production, it was not until December basic returned to normal levels.
Although the fourth quarter steel production is not big, but in the domestic economic slowdown, market in a large area under the background of 'money shortage', both dealers and users, are not willing to stock up, and around the market competing to throw at cheap prices, reduce inventory, drained into everyone's first choice.
Downstream product sales because it was hard, can reduce for the procurement of raw materials, and intermediary also don't want to stock up, finally backlog of inventory can only in the steel mills, force steel through the production and maintenance or even halt production PuGang, solve the difficult problems of inventories, product sales.
But in December, favorable economic factors increase, monetary policy also loosen again, the market gradually restored calm.
But because the early stage of the terminal combination of enterprises, middlemen, steel mills, all inventory has been reduced to a lower level, some resources even appeared in short supply situation, especially under 40 mm small specification resources, which makes out of stock, out of stock market is the most commonly cited words, when the steel plant occupy the advantage again low, in view of the agents and downstream enterprise demands increase orders, many steel mills appear tough, for more than the number of resolute not hair, the author thinks that, it's steel mills to tighten supply, to prepare for the years after the price increase.
Taken together, in the fourth quarter, steel mills policy has experienced the downgrade, the shape of the two stages of stability, to the end of the year, by loosening monetary policy, such as stabilizing demand increasing favorable factors, steel mills policy appeared pull up signs of stabilization, such as EGang on January 5th raised carbon steel factory price of 30 yuan, although the small amplitude, which reflected the meaning is very profound.
In addition, from the special steel industry is mainly used machinery and automobile industry, although the two big two big industry growth were lower than expected in 2011, but given that GDP growth in 2012 stabilization, improve macro policy environment factors, such as two major industry in 2012 is expected to remain stable growth, including RGL association forecast full-year 2012 car sales growth rate will reach 8%, the China machinery industry federation machinery industrial production is expected to increase 18%
20%, which is stable for special steel market, stimulate the industry recovery will play a good support, also can enhance the position of steel price policy, policy after special steel enterprises large raised should be a big probability event.
The author believes that, after the requirements of special steel market rebounded certainly exist, in addition to the aforementioned mills policy stability of bullish and steady demand increase, support the judgement of the main causes of low inventory and market situation, after the National Day around the stock market appeared a long decline, until the Spring Festival before showing modest increases, but the overall inventory remains low in years, part of the resource on the market demand is slightly lower than supply situation will continue to exist, the holiday market rebound will be the trend of The Times.